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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.