Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data
The typical count of everyday killings per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government data. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide security.
Significant Drop in Daily Averages
There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.
Historical Context and Government Plan
Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.
At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”
The central elements of the President's security plan involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
- Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
- Increased collaboration between government agencies.
Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns
But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“That would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.
“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”
Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may hide days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.
“Employing the per-day mean renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress
An area where the government can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration
However despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.
Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.
“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.
